BITCOIN

Why Bitcoin could be away from 100,000, says a loyalty expert


Bulls are back in control after a brief fall in bitcoin prices. The first cryptocurrency by market cap traded north of $ 57,000 on the daily and weekly charts with profits of 2.5% and 11.1%, respectively.

At a rally on the BTC daily chart. Source: BTCUSD Trading View

The general feeling of the market is that it is bright, because operators and traders expect Bitcoin to meet its historical performance. At the end of the year, BTC prices usually go up sideways.

Related Reading | The price of Bitcoin is ready to return to the RSI “bull zone”

Bitcoin is trading at its all-time high of $ 64,870 to less than 10,000 10,000 and it could go into unfamiliar territory, Fidelity Macro director Jurian Timmer told CNBC, short-term holder FOMO in an interview with BTC. These are the investors who have only held BTC for the last 3 months.

As can be seen in the chart below, currently only 15% of BTC’s total supply is handled by “Momentum Chaser”. In order for Bitcoin to reach new heights, this metric must stand above 20%.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: Jurien Timmer via Twitter

In that sense, Timmer believes that Bitcoin’s lack of current reversal is an “excess” that could suggest some stability and durability for current price action. Unlike previous rallies, this time Bitcoin seems to be moving beyond the influence of the “speculator”, as Timmer called them.

However, some traders may find Timmer’s prediction disappointing because he believes that the benchmark crypto is far from the main psychological mark of 100,000.

Related Reading | Bitcoin short-term supply has reached an all-time low

When the expert examined the Bitcoin / Gold ratio to analyze the supply model from BTC’s demand, he found the following:

So is Bitcoin on the way to new heights? I know better than to estimate the bold price but I will notice that the next (and last) time my supply-and-demand models will be intersected is around k 100k in 2023 or 2024.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: Jurien Timmer via Twitter

Bitcoin is far from the top, bulls are on top of the accelerator

On the other hand, analyst Allen Au looked at the Bitcoin Pie Cycle top indicator to see if the cryptocurrency has entered a bearish level. This metric is historically accurate for predicting market tops.

As the analyst explained, it uses a simple moving average of 111 days and a 250 moving average (SMA) of Bitcoin prices. When these two are connected to each other, operators begin to suspect that BTC has reached its peak.

Related Reading | Bitcoin whale addition patterns show strong bullish feeling among top holders

Unlike Timmer, this model predicts the price of Bitcoin to exceed 300 300,000 by the end of 2021. As analysts point out, for the metric to be accurate, Bitcoin needs to break the previous bullish cycle:

What I have shown is not to invalidate the pie cycle top indicator or agree that there is an elongated cycle. What the simulations have shown is that the pie cycle top will miss the peak of BTC’s cycle if it happens in December 2021 unless BTC is now on a supercycle.

BTC BTCUSD
Source: Allen Au via Twitter

In the situation presented by Au, regardless of BTC’s accurate forecast, the cryptocurrency will move at least sideways until it reaches its potential peak in 2022.



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