Huge groups of former President Donald Trump and his loyal supporters confidently speculate that the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is in the bag. To them and to Trump, he is not just a president in exile, patiently waiting to be restored to his rightful place.
But while some of them are talking about it, let’s think about it, Trump has to face two huge hurdles before he can be credibly considered for his party’s nomination:
- His stubborn reluctance to overcome the fact that he lost the 2020 election.
- He must play an important role in the 2022 Congress elections.
Failure in one or both cases will destroy him.
Assuming – and this is a big guess – that he can put his 2020 defeat behind him and clear his mind of the task at hand, he will now have to immerse himself in the mid-congressional competition so that his political life depends on him.
As 2022 approaches, Trump will have to prove convincingly that he still has political influence, not only by raising money and campaigning hard for GOP congressional candidates, but also by helping Parliament control the House or Senate, or both. Anything less and its 2024 presidential stock will decline.
While we know Trump can be an enterprising and effective campaigner for himself, his ability to make others victorious in critical elections is a big question mark. Her biggest problem is having a hard time putting aside her own ego and interests and promoting the candidates she is trying to help. She moved away from work before him and started campaigning about him. It doesn’t always work.
We saw a tragic example in Georgia last January when two Republican incumbent senators, Kelly Lofler and David Purdue, lost to Democratic rivals John Osaf and Rafael Warnak, despite Trump’s eleven-hour help.
Jan. On the eve of the Georgia election, during Trump’s last 16 days in office, he traveled to Dalton to campaign for endangered senators. And while he made an enthusiastic lawsuit for their re-election, a large part of his speech was a bitter allegation about how he was “snatched” just two months ago. He announced that he had not yet finished fighting to overturn Joe Biden’s victory and revealed that he had one more strategy: the Senate was ready to formally approve the 2020 Electoral College results two days later, and Trump told the Georgia crowd that he was relying on him. Vice President Mike Pence refused to certify Biden’s victory and kept Trump in the White House.
“I hope Mike Pence comes for us. … He is a great man. Of course, if he doesn’t come for us, I won’t like him so much, “Trump told the crowd.
Despite Trump’s last-minute efforts, Loffler and Purdue lost on Jan. 5, handing control of the Senate over to Democrats. And a day later, a huge crowd of Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in hopes of disrupting Biden’s credentials. When an agitated nation witnessed a horrific uprising, Trump’s will failed. The reaction of that day is still being felt.
And now, almost nine months later, Trump still refuses to believe that he has lost. Such a mentality would be a stumbling block in his efforts to elect Republicans to the House and Senate next year. In short, he showed a few signs of understanding the weight of his 2022 task, but that election has a lot to prove. Trump must overcome five major obstacles:
- Acknowledge that he lost last year and stop giving public hands about it.
- Encourage its loyalists to support GOP candidates.
- Trust the Trump Republicans to be with their party when voting.
- Appeal to Independent Voters Those who show up to vote are constantly disrespecting performance in Biden’s office.
- Put his ego aside and concentrate on choosing the other tirelessly, and don’t promote yourself.
The open question is whether he is willing and able to do something about it. Effective political leaders know how to work hard for those who can help them achieve their goals. Trump’s performance in 2022 is a huge test. His hopes for the presidency in 202224 have been dashed.