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Some indications are that the Federal Reserve is already behind the rate hike, says Deutsche Bank strategist


Some labor-market indicators indicate that policymakers at the Federal Reserve are already behind raising interest rates, and supply shocks through the U.S. economy need to stop quickly so that officials “don’t fall too far behind the curve,” said Francis Yard, a Deutsche Bank strategist.

The shocks are affecting both U.S. inflation and the labor market – where there aren’t enough workers to move around and more Americans need extra wages to persuade or motivate them to quit their jobs, Deutsche Bank’s global chief rate researcher said in an interview with MarketWatch on Thursday.

He cited the so-called abandonment rate, which has remained close to record-breaking levels, as a sign that policymakers are behind taking action.

Officials don’t expect rates to rise before next year because of the Fed’s need to cut $ 120 billion in monthly bond purchases, and their credibility is largely intact by valuable financial markets to keep inflation under control. Stock markets continued to rally with Dow Industrial DJIA on Thursday,
+ 0.98%
Closed by more than 330 points, while the break-even rate remains stable and some parts of the Treasury curve continue as 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,
1.577%
It has reached its highest level since June.

Nonetheless, investors have become increasingly concerned about the possibility of a longer-term expansion of inflation than previously thought, and they will focus on the release of the September consumer-price index next Wednesday.

Read: The sudden realization that inflation may continue has begun to dawn on many U.S. investors

“I’m happy to be open about how quickly the supply push will spread,” Yared said by phone from London. “But what I’m saying is that there is a real risk that the Fed will be behind the curve. We want to see a large number of people return to work fairly quickly, so that doesn’t happen.

“Obviously, if you’re behind the curve, you have to walk faster first,” he said. “But where the last point is will still be a matter of debate.”

Yard’s comments come at a time when more investors and analysts are uniting to risk outcomes such as stagnation in the United States, although there are some indicators that the economy is currently growing above potential. Consumer price readings have been a surprisingly strong 5% or more over the years for May, June, July and August, and there are very few indications that inflationary pressures will soon fade the supply-chain barrier that has failed to leave.

Meanwhile, the U.S. job market is “behaving perfectly like employment,” although the current unemployment rate for August is 5.2% higher than the pre-epidemic level, Yard said. Recent data show that about 4 million Americans quit their jobs in July, a drop rate of 2.7% for the second consecutive month.

Views: Inflation has already eased barriers to growth, but employment standards have not yet been met: Fed’s master

Recent trends in commercial and industrial loans, in addition to mortgages from the Fed’s senior loan officer survey, point to a U.S. economy that has already expanded beyond the potential of an underlying GDP growth rate of 3% -4%, Yared said. He made the observations based on calculations made by Haver Analytics that determine the value of nding to measure credit supply, starting in 1990 with a recent loan officer survey published in July.

Although two months old, the data “makes you realize what kind of environment you are in at a time when you are prone to temporary and distorted activity, among other things” “My best guess is that banks will have a high level of willingness to pay.” -Less precise in estimating marginal growth, but potentially more accurate in understanding underlying trends.

Other indicators যেমন such as inflation above targets and rising wages, including dropout rates সব all point to the notion that the U.S. economy is ahead of many people’s expectations, he said. So the question is not whether “Fed officials should be tapped, but if they are above neutral” with interest rates – or a high enough level to support the economy while keeping inflation stable.



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