Get free French presidential election updates
We will send you one myFT Daily Digest Every morning emails the latest news of the French presidential election.
Marine Le Pen has long been preparing for his second presidential confrontation with Emanuel Macron when a political novice thwarted his plans.
As recently as September 12, opinion polls showed that veteran right-wing politicians and top candidates such as the French president 2017 could reach the second and final round in April, explaining what he saw was a general vote: “The French want this choice between him and me.” It is really a choice between globalization and nationalism.
Then came Eric Jemur. The right-wing television polymist, who has not yet officially announced that he is a presidential candidate, has attacked public opinion, which has confused the electoral count.
Among first-round voters, Jemmore’s support grew from one per cent when Harris Interactive first included him three weeks ago, now to 1 per cent, and Le Pen’s support has dropped from 2 per cent to 16 per cent last month. Jemmur is also close to voting at the same level, with third-place candidate Xavier Bertrand’s mid-right Les Republicans, who accounted for 14 percent. Macron is stable at 23 percent.
Crystal Lezier, an assistant professor of politics at the University of Avignon, said Jammu was a fancy element that seemed like a stale campaign so far. “If his candidacy becomes real, it will hit the right and the ultimate right,” he said.
When Le Pen began his campaign in the Mediterranean city of Fries just a few weeks ago, he blew up his chances as a presidential candidate, calling him a “third candidate” who would fade as many as before.
“I’m always happy that there are additional candidates who start saying what we’ve been saying for 20 years,” Le Pen said. “There were always marginal candidates.”
Political scientists say Jemur is no longer marginalized. Promoted from a primetime television talk show, a dedicated YouTube channel, and a new book, Jammu has set fire to Muslim immigration and what he sees as the collapse of French civilization. He was twice convicted of making racial or religious remarks.
Le Pen’s problem with Jemmur is that he is not ashamed of his aggressive stance, he has restrained his voice in an attempt to “detoxify” his party in an attempt to win over party-centric right-wing and former communist voters. Her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, a decade ago.
On immigration, when Le Pen proposed a referendum on identity, citizenship and immigration control, Jemmur called for a ban on foreign first names like Mohammed and said he would favor the return of 2 million foreigners to their country of origin.
This week, when the text was asked about labor shortages and the need for foreign workers in post-Brexit Britain, Le Pen even said he was not an idealist and would accept the need for foreign labor in the French sector. “If my country, France, needs immigrants, so be it,” he said.
Even her father and the founder of the team, -year-old Jean-Marie Le Pen, now says she would support Jammer more than her own daughter if she had to win better.
“The Marines have abandoned his castle and Eric has occupied his previous territory,” he told Le Monde in an interview. “If Eric is the best candidate in the nationalist camp, I will definitely support him.”
Jean-Marie Le Pen, who has been convicted of anti-Semitism, also joked that Jemmur is being demonized now because he says he was in the past. “The only difference between me and Eric is that he is Jewish. So it’s hard to call him a Nazi or a fascist. It gives him more freedom.”
For Marine Le Pen, “many think his ‘detoxification’ policy is wrong,” said political analyst Vincent Martigni. “He has to be on a very radical line to lose his supporters, but he also has to open his mouth to get new voters. It was always his hesitation. ”
Le Pen’s rearrangement has a limited effect. Many voters who see themselves as center-right যারা who supported the disgraced center-right politician Francois Fillon in his failed bid for the presidency in 2017 কে may support Jemmore even though his views are more extreme than those of Le Pen, according to analysts.
They say, because Le Pen carries the things of his party’s past, whose origins are anti-Semitic, while Jemmour of Algerian Jewish descent একজন a well-known Parisian intellectual.
“Those who support the LR are very close to the Front Nationals in many ways [the old name for Le Pen’s Rassemblement National]Martini said. “But they don’t want to ally with the FN, because ‘they’re racist, and we’re acceptable people’.”
Jing-Ives Camus, an expert on extremism, agrees with the tendencies of Fillon’s supporters. “There are some voters who are ready to move to a market economy, to intellectuals, and to someone who is very strict about immigration.”
If Jemmur manages to eliminate Le Pen from the second round, it could uncomfortably embarrass Macron, who was waiting to be re-elected for another easy win in the second round. The president could face someone like Bertrand from the right, which, according to the survey, has a better chance of beating him than Le Pen.
For the moment, though, the main victim of Jemmur’s rise is Le Pen. “Everyone knows Marine Le Pen can’t win,” is one of Jemmur’s favorite phrases, and the person who is working hard to make sure the truth is no more Jemur.