Adolescent girls covered in German flags join the right-wing Alternative Germany (AFD) election campaign rally on May 28, 2021 in Haldensleben, Germany.
Shawn Gallup | Getty Images News | Getty Images
It seems impossible to predict the outcome of Germany’s federal election on Sunday, with a recent poll suggesting that a significant number of Germans have not yet decided who to vote for.
A survey by the Allensbach Institute last week found that 40% of the 1,259 people were unsure about how they would vote. The poll, conducted for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper, also found that the majority were not attracted to any candidate for chancellor, not to their political party.
Recent opinion polls indicate a very close race.
The Politico poll indicates that the SPD is expected to get 25% of the vote, the CDU / CSU 21% and the Green Party 15%. This is followed by Pro-Business, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AFD), both with 11%. The far left Die Lin is seen with 7% of the vote.
Many voters are hesitant to face it when Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has been in office for 16 years, prepares to leave office.
The Conservative Party of the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union (CDU / CSU) won the previous election with relative ease, but with Merkel’s elected “successor” Armin Lachett it seems increasingly impossible to similarly fail to appeal to voters.
“We don’t really have any incumbents,” Thomas Gaswend, a professor of political science at Mannheim University, told CNBC on Thursday.
“The CDU tried to run their campaign that Lachett is Merkel’s natural heir, but people didn’t just buy this story because she’s not Merkel, she’s not like him. Many who liked Merkel were not supporters of her party Can: ‘I may not vote for this party anymore’.
These voters are now “ready to be caught,” Gschwend said.
Merkel’s departure could accelerate the decline in support for the CDU / CSU seen in recent elections, which shows that Germans, and especially young voters, are interested in change.
This has been proven in the voter elections this year, with the Green Party leading the polls at one point in April. It then surpassed the left-wing Social Democratic Party (SPD), which has maintained its lead ahead of the CDU / CSU in recent weeks.
Ralph Stegener, SPD politician and opposition leader in the Schleswig-Holstein region, told CNBC on Thursday that German voters want a new chancellor who can fill Merkel’s shoes.
“Most people want to see someone at the top of the government who is able to do the job and keep the country together. These are things that need to be done in the face of difficult times and international crises. We have a lot of coronavirus issues and challenges in Europe and our country.”
“German voters measure their chancellor candidates on how they can meet international challenges and how they will be on stage with American or Russian presidents or Chinese leaders.”
Stegener noted that this factor could be attributed to SPD candidate Olaf Schulz, who is accustomed to top-level politics due to his role as German finance minister and vice-chancellor, with the biggest advantage over his rivals প্রধান the main rivals being Armin Laschet and Green Party from CDU / CSU. Bearback.
With a coalition government most likely given the expected close vote, pundits are now speculating on what it could form.
Naz Masraf, Europe director of the Eurasia Group, said on Wednesday that the chances of a chancellor led by SPD candidate Olaf Schulz are now 60%, while Armin Laschet of the center-right CDU / CSU has a 40% chance.
Political risk advice suggests the possibility of an SPD-led so-called “traffic light” coalition (Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP)) as a post-election scenario, giving a 45% chance. It noted that the chances of a CDU / CSU-led “Jamaica” government (including the Greens and the FDP) were reduced by 30%.
While Merkel is trying to revive Lashett’s electoral prospects, the CDU / CSU alliance may find itself in the cold during coalition talks. This would be a blow to the coalition, which has dominated German politics since 1949.
The 2021 vote is unpredictable for a variety of reasons, including the number of mail-in votes expected this year.
It remains to be seen whether the recent slight improvement in CDU / CSU voting will turn into a last-minute moment on election day, said Kirsten Nickel, deputy director of research at Tenio Intelligence, as well as how the Greens pay rent.
Still, he told CNBC on Thursday that it is very difficult to predict which party will win from undecided voters.
He told CNBC’s Street Signs: “Our poll shows that 40% of voters have not yet made up their minds to finally act as a reminder of this watery moment in German politics.” “After 16 years of stability, continuity and an absolutely predictable election campaign, all that certainty is gone and we are looking forward to a tough competition.”
The formation of an alliance is expected to be a long and drawn-out affair as the parties disagree on issues such as monetary policy and climate targets.
This has already proved controversial during the election campaign.
Laschett, for example, said Schulz and the SPD could represent a security risk if they allowed the Left Dye Link party to form a coalition government that would seek to abolish NATO. On his part, Scholz said he was ready to negotiate with any party other than the right-wing AFD, as long as there was a firm commitment to Natore.
Speaking to CNBC on Wednesday, Schulz reiterated his commitment to the military alliance, saying: “As Germany’s finance minister, we have increased our military spending budget much more than ever before. It was a 37% increase and that’s what I did. I do it from the bottom of my heart because we need a strong defense infrastructure in Germany with our partners in the EU and NATO. “