Holiday sales will increase from 8.5% to 10.5% by 2021, the National Retail Federation said

November 14, 2020, shoppers hold hands at Willow Grove Park Mall in Willow Grove, Pennsylvania.

Mark Makela | Reuters

Retailers will see enthusiastic holiday shoppers flocking to stores and websites as even some toys, clothes and other gift items are stuck in crowded ports, according to a new forecast that cites rising household incomes and higher savings rates.

The National Retail Federation said Wednesday it expects holiday sales in November and December Will increase between 8.5% and 10.5%, with total sales of $ 843.4 billion and $ 859 billion. Sales forecasts exclude costs at automobile dealers, petrol stations and restaurants.

In a call with reporters, NRF President and CEO Matt Shaw acknowledged the supply chain and labor shortages as headwinds, but said retailers planned in advance to make sure they had plenty of inventory, and hinted consumers would start shopping in October.

In some cases, he said, buyers may have to buy different items than their preferred list. Still, he said, it would not dampen their enthusiasm.

“They’re positively going shopping for the holiday season and they won’t go home empty-handed,” he said. “They’ll shop, they’ll buy and they’ll find that item.”

He said consumers feel more comfortable traveling, going to restaurants and staying at hotels again. That dynamic can also boost retail sales, as they purchase products for a more active life. Also, he said, international tourists who have been fully vaccinated will be able to visit the United States from November 8.

“We think it will push the retail side as well,” he said.

There are also other holiday forecasts Predicted a significant jump in spending year after year. According to various forecasts from Bain, Deloitte and MasterCard SpendingPlus, sales in November and December are expected to increase by at least 7% compared to last year.

However, buyers will face challenging dynamics as retailers struggle to keep shelves to collect goods from factories due to traffic congestion at the port, rising equipment costs and a shortage of truck drivers. This is expected to result in lower discounts, longer shipping times and more translating out of stock items.

Retailers, including Target, Best Buy, Amazon and Walmart, have announced early holiday sales events, and even hung exclusive access for loyal customers or encouraged buyers to buy the desired item as soon as they see it.

Last year, holiday sales increased 8.2% from 2019 to $ 777.3 billion, according to the NRF, as consumers cheered themselves with gifts during the epidemic. Holiday retail sales have grown by an average of 4.4% over the past five years.

This story will be developing and updated.

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