Germany’s electoral competition is very close to calling the SPD’s leadership narrow

Construction workers put up a barrier in front of the campaign poster of Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party leader and Chancellor candidate Armin Lashett.

John McDougall | AFP | Getty Images

Within days of the Germans voting in Sunday’s federal election, the gap between the top two rivals in the latest polls has narrowed.

While Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) is ahead, a new survey by Insar for the German newspaper Build found that the gap is narrowing. The SPD is now leading the Conservatives by only three percentage points.

The popularity of center-left SPD has increased dramatically since August. The party’s manifesto – which includes left-leaning tax and social policy, pro-EU stance and flexible debt-breaking rules – has also appealed to voters who want a change in status quo if Merkel resigns.

The poll found that the SPD won 25% of the vote, while the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union (CDU / CSU) won 22% of the vote, the ruling party of outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel, and later 15% of the Green Party.

This indicates that the election is very close, although German voters have been in favor of stability in past elections, which means the SPD’s leadership could be shattered on election day.

However, SPD’s Schulz – an experienced politician who is now finance minister and vice-chancellor – appears to be more popular with the public than his CDU / CSU rival, Armin Laschett, who was elected successor to Merkel’s coalition earlier this year.

Win the debate

The three television debates between the main candidates, Scholz, Laschet and Greens candidate Annalena Baerbock, have seen the public consistently vote for Scholz as the winner of broad and often joint discussions, ranging from climate protection to protection and taxes.

The recent controversy on Sunday night was no exception, with a snap poll showing Scholes as the clear winner (42% of viewers think so according to the Forsa poll), while Lashett got 27% and Bareback 25%.

After the election, there is likely to be a hint of something in the coalition talks (no party is expected to get enough seats to rule alone). To get up. However, they both indicate a willingness to negotiate with all parties except for the right-wing option for Germany.

Which party will be part of that future coalition government is up to the experts before the vote because it does not seem to be a clear and easily achieved coalition.

There is talk of forming a three-party system. For example, the Greens have a “green-red-red” alliance with the SPD and the far-left Die Link Party, or perhaps a “traffic light” alliance of the SPD, the Greens and the Liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP).

“The interesting story about this election is determining who will lead the country after the election in recent weeks,” Gerlinde Groel, an assistant professor of international politics and transatlantic relations at Regensburg University, told CNBC on Monday. .

“The FDP really wants to be in a coalition government, but they have different loopholes to bridge them with the Social Democrats – they are far apart in terms of tax policy, social policy, etc. – and we probably have a few coalition options starting the table from next Sunday.”

Also questionable is whether DiLink (which the Western military alliance called for the abolition of NATO) will join any alliance, a possibility that may be unexpected for many German voters who are misguided towards the center.

In fact, CDU / CSU candidate Lachett has used the TV debate as an opportunity for public concern about the possible inclusion of DiLink in future governments. Neither Scholes nor Barebok has denied working with DyeLink, although Scholes has said that any party in the German alliance must make a commitment to NATO.

Groel noted that while the SPD has moved “quite to the left,” the party’s candidate was more than the conservative side of the spectrum within the Schulz party, and there will be many more gaps before such a left-risk alliance is formed.

He predicted “tough negotiations” in any coalition talks after that election, which “could drag on for a while”.

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