Determining the future amount of remote work

Some of you may be reading this blog from your configured home workstation because there was an attempt to keep workers safe from Kovid-1. I discussed in a recent blog how this kind of work-from-home arrangement accelerates a trend that has been going on since before Covid-1. But the big question for the U.S. economy is how many jobs, and what kind they could be Permanently Go 100% remote even after an effective vaccine is finally delivered?

The answer could have an undeniable impact on workers, employers and the economy. For example, if tech artisans could easily get their work done from a home office in Toledo or Tulsa or Topeka, would Silicon Valley companies need a huge California campus? And what does this mean for businesses that rely on such concentrations of workers and for the types of travel? What does this mean for real estate prices, both commercial and residential?

Future assessment of remote work

Note: Data as of September 30, 2020.

Source: Vanguard calculations use data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics O * NET database.

Our 2018 Vanguard research paper The future of work It has been found that, contrary to some reports, technology is not making jobs largely invisible, but it is profoundly changing almost all of them. A work is the sum of his work. Our research examined 41 jobs, or jobs, that created nearly 1,000 jobs identified by the U.S. Department of Labor and found that, since 2000, jobs have shifted significantly from basic and repetitive to “unique human” work that depends on creative problems. The solution.

In that study, we focused on the number of jobs needed in the future (Answer: Total more), without worrying about where those jobs were and whether certain things could be done remotely. But as the graphic above shows, we’ve done just that now. We have updated the structure of our work in the labor universe of the Department of Labor. Now, though, we’ve done tasks related to each profession on a scale of 0 to 10 for direct job potential. A score of 0 represents a task that cannot be done remotely, while a 10 represents a task that can be performed completely remotely with equal efficiency.

We then see which jobs are critically important for which jobs. For example, the work of a bartender includes critically important work of mixing drinks but also critical work of data entry.

Finally, we assessed that any profession had a high overall distance score among the critically important work. As we can see in the graphic, about 15% of the work in the United States can be done remotely. While this percentage may seem small, it represents a potential 20 million U.S. workers. This is a large number.

Our assessment included a% 0% conservative limit for critically important tasks, which meant that “effectiveness” could be lost with some tasks that could be eliminated, but 60% efficiency was good enough to get the job done. A higher margin means fewer jobs and workers can work remotely permanently.

The first adoption of our remote-work evaluation

Perhaps the most striking feature of our graphic is the high percentage of intermediate occupations সমস্ত the point between all remote and pre-epidemic normals. This suggests to me that a hybrid model for the future of work may emerge for many of us, in which remote work may be enough for a few days or weeks at a time, but not the whole year. After all, while a job can be the sum of his or her work, there is much more involved in a career. There are many more “unique humanitarian” tasks than sharing many professions; Such as training, counseling, and collaboration for which complete remote work can pose challenges.

In Vanguard Economic and Market Outlook 2021: Near Dawn, Which we will publish in December 2020, we will discuss further trends that may have been accelerated (e.g. remote work) or changed by Covid-1 by and evaluate their economic and market impact.

But an early reading of our remote work using our data-driven framework suggests that for many of us, the future of work will not be like the past or the present. This suggests that, for some professions, a hybrid model may emerge that combines the power of social communication with the flexibility of remote work.


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