ছবি Photo from Reuters file: July 17, 2017, posted a sign asking for help at a taco stand on Solana Beach, California. Reuters / Mike Blake
By Mike Dolan
LONDON (Reuters) – Higher wages alone probably won’t clear the churning and distorted global labor markets at the moment – and for many workers, they may not even be basic needs.
If future wage increases determine that inflation continues to rise this year and demand for scarce skills is a central determinant, then workers, companies, policymakers and investors will have to fasten their seat belts for next year.
Still, it’s not always clear. The Incoming Corporate Recruitment Survey reveals that the demand for more workers is external as the post-epidemic economy resumes – but they also show the ability to attract and retain workers based not only on compensation.
An HSBC survey published this week surveyed more than 2,000 business leaders in 10 countries and concluded that stiff competition for talent means companies need to think later about how they attract and retain workers.
The survey found that firms expect staff numbers to grow 13% in 12 months and meet revenue growth targets of 20%, with companies in the United States, Mexico and India leading the way.
More than 40% of people expect to hire more than 20% of staff, and more than two-thirds are already in the recruitment or retraining process.
But while almost half of companies still see pay and financial benefits as a key factor in talent acquisition, many now place as much emphasis on flexible work, position and ‘good health’ policy as they make important decisions in both post-epidemic recruitment and the fight to retain existing staff. .
The survey is not external.
In a report titled “Great Attraction,” management consultancy McKinsey & Co noted that a record number of workers were leaving or considering leaving the job, and that more than 15 million U.S. workers had left since April this year.
Companies enumerated at McKinsey were struggling to understand the reasons, and financial incentives alone no longer seem to make a difference for employees for a greater sense of flexibility and purpose, recognition and recognition.
It included a survey of employees from five countries – Australia, Britain, Canada, Singapore and the United States – which found that sectors ranging from health and education to retirement and hospitality had a 0% chance of leaving at least a bit, and white collar work.
Surprisingly, more than a third voluntarily quit their jobs in the last few months without going to anyone else.
‘Inadequate compensation’ was explicitly cited as a factor, but it was also not among the top four ‘most important’ factors – the tops were occupied by work-life balance, good relationships and being valued by managers or organizations.
Truckers and payrolls
While this may seem like a lame argument for some companies to refrain from paying workers at the moment, these labor market sensitivities – taken as a reading – can have profound macroeconomic implications.
This week’s U.S. employment report or Britain may have a chaotic truck deficit, but the amount of wage pressure is probably the biggest investor problem at the moment – at least not likely to start as steep energy prices rise. The answer is winter.
For many, the central bank’s insistence that the 3-5% inflation rate this summer in Europe and the United States is transient and relies solely on epidemic-related barriers will test whether higher rewards and settlements are expected in the next 12 months. The rate of inflation is here to stay.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said last month that a steady ward-upward move from the low rate observed before the epidemic could only occur if wage inflation rises significantly.
Although wage indexing and unionization were not the time for the late wage-price spiral of the 1970s and 1980s, the importance of end-of-year wage bargaining – or more opaque hiring or retention pay agreements – is extremely sensitive.
The OECD thinks overall wage pressures remain moderate. However, there has been a significant increase in some recently reopened “communication-intensive” sectors in the United States, such as leisure and hospitality, and which appear to be temporary labor shortages for small businesses in Europe.
However, it emphasizes retention of ongoing or expired jobs and distortion of the image from the net impact of furlough schemes and greater corporate support. The actual health of the global labor market will not be well known until next year.
And, for many wealthy workers, significant savings in lockdowns within at least 18 months can encourage early retirement, long career breaks or reconsideration of purposeful work and where to live.
But preferential workers now have higher pay increases than new found flexibility to work remotely, or more subtle issues in terms of motivation and inclusion in the workplace, which could have a significant impact on wage inflation for the future.
(Mike Dolan, via Twitter (NYSE :): utersreutersMikeD; edited by John Harvey)