There are four matchups in the latest AP Top 25 teams in the 5th week of the college football season.
The SEC has a pair of blockbuster matchups this weekend. No. 2 Georgia meets No. 8 Arkansas at 12 p.m. in an unexpected Top-10 showdown. No. 1 Alabama welcomes No. 12 Ole Miss in the latest installment of Nick No. Soap vs. Lane Kiffin.
It’s a game with the impact of a huge college football playoff, like another top-10 showdown between Cincinnati No. 7 and Notre Dame No. 9 in the same window. Surprise Big 12 undefeated No. 19 Oklahoma State and No. 21 Baylor meet in prime time.
Bender: Week 4 Takeaways rises to No. 1 in Georgia playoffs
This is our chance to improve our record against the heaviest weekend and spread of the season so far:
- Straight: 61-14 (17-3 weeks 4)
- Against the spread: 32-43 (9-11 weeks)
- Upset: 4-1 (1-0 in Week 4)
With that in mind, check out this week’s picks:
Week 5 Sorting against scattering
Friday, October 1
No. 5 Iowa (-3.5) in Maryland (8 p.m., FS1)
Toulia TagoWilloa led the Terps to a surprising start, and they won their last home match against the Hockey in 201 home. Iowa, however, has not given more than 1 point in a game this season. That over (48.5) is very interesting.
Pick: Iowa won 31-26 and covered the spread.
No. 13 BYU (-8.5) in Utah State (9pm, CBSSN)
Jerin Hall (Rib) may return this week, but Baylor Romney proved a capable backup against South Florida. The Cougars have preferred 0-2 ATS this season, and the Aggies have had some shouts. Utah State could relax with football as well.
Pick: BYU won -25-23 and covered the spread.
Saturday, October 2
No. 8 Arkansas No. 2 Georgia (-18.5) (12 noon, ESPN)
The Bulldogs have allowed 3-1 ATS and just 23 points this season. Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS, and include two covers as an underdog. Georgia beat Arkansas by half-5 goals last season before the Bulldogs opened the game. We think Arkansas can compete for these four quarters, even if it’s at arm’s length.
Pick: Georgia won 30-13 but failed to cover the spread.
Wisconsin No. 14 Michigan (-0.5) (12 p.m., Fox)
It’s a pick-me-up, and with good reason. Wisconsin has had two losses and struggled in the passing game, but their run defense will test Michigan. The Wolverines have not won in Wilconsin since 2001. Michigan 0-12 S / U under Jim Harbaugh since 2015.
Pick: Michigan won 23-20 in an UPSET
Louisville No. 24 Wake Forest (-6.5) (12:30 p.m.)
The Demon Deacons have been given a place, but the Cardinals have returned nicely from a loss to Ole Miss at the start of the season.
Pick: Lewisville won 34-31 in a UPSET.
No. 7 Cincinnati at Notre Dame (7:30 NBC) (-2.5)
The Bearcats have a huge road chance to win and they will challenge the Irish in a combination of Desmond Reader and Jerome Ford. The Irish, however, exploded in the fourth quarter against Wisconsin and will play as an underdog again.
Pick: Notre Dame won 27-24 in a UPSET
Ul-Monroe No. 16 Coastal Carolina (-34.5) (2:30 p.m., ESPN +)
If the Bearcats lose, the Chanticaliers will be a group of 5 darlings. Coastal Carolina has been in favor of double digits in every game, and they are 3-1 ATS. Warhawks 3-0 S / U in this series.
Pick: Coastal Carolina won 48-17 but failed to cover the spread.
No. 12 Ole Miss No. 1 Alabama (-14.5) (3:30 p.m., CBS)
The line didn’t go very far, and Miss Ole had extra weeks to prepare for the Crimson Tide. This shoot between Bryce Young and Matt Coral should be fun. The Crimson Tide 9-3 ATS with restless difficulty in the CFP era, but we think the half-point hook is enough to take Ole Miss.
Pick: Alabama won 44-33 but failed to cover the spread.
No. 3 Oregon (-8.5) at Stanford (3:30 p.m., ABC)
It was a big game in Pack-12. The Cardinal hit-or-miss team, and the resulting line jumped two points. This is Oregon’s first game as a single-digit favorite, and they took advantage with another win on the road.
Pick: Oregon won 31-20 and covered the spread.
No. 6 Oklahoma (-10.5) in Kansas State (3:30 p.m., Fox)
The Wildcats have won the last two meetings and the Oklahoma offense has been stuck neutrally for the past two weeks. K-State is facing losses against Oklahoma State, but the Wildcats are 6-2 ATS as home underdogs under Chris Cleman.
Pick: Oklahoma won 33-24 but failed to cover the spread.
No. 11 Ohio State (-15.5) at Rutgers (3:30 p.m., BTN)
In the FBS, the Buccaneers finished second with 559..3 yards per game, and came back with eight sacks against the defense attack. The Rutgers are an advanced team under Great Shiano, but Scarlett Knights ’closest loss to Buccaneers since joining Big Pull is 22 points. The state of Ohio issued a statement on the rest of the Big Ten East.
Pick: Ohio State won -15-17 and spread.
No. 10 Florida (-8.5) in Kentucky (6 p.m., ESPN)
Kentucky will be looking to beat Gates 4-0 and Lexington for the first time since 1986. The Gators are 1-2 ATS favorites this season, but this is the first single-digit spread. The Florida defense made a difference late on, and the Wildcats lost another heart-breaker at home.
Pick: Florida won 2-2-24 but failed to cover the spread.
Louisiana Tech (-19.5) in No. 23 NC State (6pm, ESPN +)
NC State coach Dave Dowren has to be wary of the hangover game after beating Clemson and it’s going to be tough. Louisiana Tech lost by a total of three points to Mississippi State and SMU. Take those points.
Pick: NC State won 30-20 but failed to cover the spread
Texas A&M at Mississippi State No. 15 (-8.5) (7pm, SECN)
The state of Mississippi has lost a pair of heart-breakers to Memphis and LSU, and now they are going to face an Aegis team to come back after a loss to Arkansas. Texas A&M has won the last two meetings in believable fashion, but because of the inconsistent offense, it feels like a dog fight.
Pick: Texas A&M won 29-23 but failed to cover the spread.
No. 19 Baylor in the state of Oklahoma (-3.5) (7pm, ESPN2)
Surprise Big 12 unbeaten match in prime time. The Bears lead the Big 12 with 273.3 rushing yards per game, and they will be inspired after a 42-3 loss to the Cowboys last season. We still believe the home team in a coin-flip game. Oklahoma State has won three one-score games this year. Do it four times.
Pick: The state of Oklahoma won 30-23 and covered the spread.
Indiana No. 4 Penn State (-10.5) (7:30 p.m., ABC)
The Huskies beat Penn State 36-35 in a thriller last season, and no one in Happy Valley has forgotten that. Indiana enters a brutal part of the schedule, and it wasn’t the same team as last year.
Pick: Penn State won 34-17 and covered the spread.
17th Western Kentucky in Michigan State (-9.5) (7:30 p.m., BTN)
Michigan State star Kenneth Walker is getting surprised with the return of III, and this line is showing less. The Hilltopers are 3-0 ATS, but the defense allows 224.7 racing yards per game. The Spartans roll with it.
Pick: Michigan State won 35-20 and spread.
Boston College No. 25 Clemson (-15.5) (7:30 p.m., ACCN)
The Tigers have a 0-4 ATS but a two-figure favorite against Boston College, the team that took a two-point lead over the Tigers at half-time last season. Boston College will come to play 4-0 and with a lot of confidence. Everyone at the ACC thinks they have a shot at Clemson until the Tigers blow someone away. We have to wait another week.
Pick: Clemson won -21-24 but failed to cover the spread.
No. 22 Auburn (-3.5) at LSU (9pm, ESPN)
Auburn must travel to Death Valley at night, and it’s a place they haven’t won since 1999. It could go down in history a lot, and LSU has picked up the pieces since the second week of UCLA. Who made Auburn’s schedule again?
Pick: LSU won 27-20 and covered the spread.
Arizona State No. 20 UCLA (-3.5) (10:30 p.m., FS1)
The Bruins have won the last two meetings and this is a game that could determine the winner of the Pack-12 South. Pack 12 has the Sun Devils top defense, and Jaden Daniels learns from BYU’s defeat. Be late for this. It will be worth it.
Pick: The state of Arizona has won 31-30 in a UPSET
No. 18 Fresno State (-10.5) Hawaii (11pm, CBSSN)
The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS, and Jake Henner continues to get more attention with each win. Hawaii has attacked 11 turnovers and one hit-or-miss passing this season. Fresno State spent a fun week with the late cover.
Pick: Fresno State won 36-22 and covered the spread.