For months, economists predicted that Americans would return to the workshop together in September as vaccination increased, schools reopened, and federal unemployment benefits dwindled.
But those predictions failed when last month what was expected to create 194,000 of the 500,000 jobs realized – the lowest since the beginning of the year – even when the unemployment rate fell to 4.8 percent, the lowest since the epidemic began.
Economists attribute the outbreak of Covid-1in to a more contagious delta variant, in order to maintain their forecast for labor market revival and to hold a massive return to normalcy.
“I have an idea about Daju Vu where economists have become overly optimistic about when the labor market will close and when we will see these workers return to the workforce,” said Daniel Zhao, an economist at job site Glassdoor, an online job board.
“I think there is a valid reason why this should not be the case,” he added. “We know that even if the schools reopened, the Delta variant was at its peak in September so we shouldn’t have expected that our forecast would be accurate in the context of the Delta variant.”
Even though job growth boomed again earlier this year, the total percentage of Americans participating in the labor force has remained relatively unchanged since the first round of lockdowns began last year.
That trend continued in September, with a labor force participation rate of 61.6 percent, revolving around the same narrow range where it has stalled since June 2020.
The delta-driven jump in the transition has led to a decline in job search, although many large employers are desperate for recruitment. Retailers are particularly keen to add jobs and raise wages before the holiday season, but September data indicates that some Americans are still hesitant to open higher jobs.
The Department of Labor reported that 1.6 million Americans said they were not looking for work because of the epidemic, 107,000 more than in August and the first increase in that number since January.
The 909,000 women who quit their jobs or were looking for work last month were responsible for an exorbitant proportion of labor losses, probably due to the delicate responsibility of preventing Delta Geu from reopening some schools across the country.
“It is almost always the case that the binding factor in terms of the labor market is the demand for workers, [and] The assumption of all models is that there is always an adequate supply of workers and there are always people who can pull in as much demand as there is in the workforce, ”said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities.
“What we have seen during the epidemic is the shortage of workers as well as our high unemployment rate. You’ve never seen it before. ”
President Joe Biden blamed the epidemic in a White House speech on Friday, saying the jobs report did not paint an accurate picture of the current labor market.
“Today’s report is based on a survey conducted in the week of September 1, not today, September 1 – when Covid’s cases averaged more than 150,000 per day,” the president said. “Since then, we have seen daily cases drop by more than a third and they continue to decline and we continue to make progress.”
Biden spoke of a bigger-than-expected fall in the unemployment rate last month. But the fall was not entirely due to unemployed workers looking for jobs. Equations Economists use the equation to calculate the unemployment rate, reducing the total number of workers.
Inequality is responsible for changes in the job market brought about by the epidemic, because the risk of infection changes the calculation of workers whether they work privately on low wages.
Those same jobs are also the most vulnerable to public health crises, and as the number of cases increases, they are often quickly eliminated or dropped. Glasdor’s Zhou said that despite the massive recruitment efforts of employers, the service industry now employs thousands less people before the epidemic and can never bring back workers in large numbers.
An analysis in the Financial Times further found that the end of increased federal unemployment benefits meant that helping those laid off due to the epidemic also failed to successfully bring back 7.5 million workers to the বাজারে 300-a-week job market.
As infections and hospital admissions begin to decline, some economists are optimistic that the expected autumn return may still occur, albeit later than expected. They agree that recovery depends on the Covid crisis.
“This year was a false dawn for the labor market,” said Nick Bunker, an economist for the job site. “The demand for workers is strong and millions of people want to return to work, but the basis for job growth has yet to be found.”