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In this episode Bitcoin MagazineIn its “Fed Watch” podcast, we invited author Dylan Lecler Bitcoin Magazine, Come back to the podcast. Leclair is deeply rooted in the weeds of the Bitcoin market. After touching the price of September of, (the day of the podcast recording), our conversation turned into Leclerc’s monthly deep dive, he wrote in a major report. Bitcoin MagazineIts exclusive member.
As we made our way through the Leclair report, we stopped at several of our favorite charts. The first is “supplied by the sum of the liquids,” seen below. He has walked through our money and acceptance. As you can see in the chart, most of the conventional supply of Bitcoin (all Bitcoins have been mined so far) is vague, in the sense that it has not moved within a certain period of time.
Deep dive bitcoin chart
Next, we touched on a chart that you may have seen floating around the interface, “HODLer Net Position Change,” measuring the amount of coins that HODLers have entered. We’ve discussed several aspects of the chart below, of course, noting recent growth as well as net sales. This is a lagging indicator, which clearly shows that the assembly takes place before the deposit where you get a short pressure and distribution as the price goes up.
At this point in our conversation, we also talked about the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and its potential impact on holding behavior and prices. It wasn’t covered in Deep Dive, but we had a good discussion highlighting several important issues. I have written more about GBTC dynamics here.
The chart we probably spent the most time on was the hash tape chart. This is one of my favorite charts on Bitcoin, as it simplifies the whole industry in one chart, including price and hash rate. You can find my version at “Bitcoin Pulse” published via BitcoinandMarkets.com. Perhaps this index is a simplification, but the more proficient you become in Bitcoin, the more details you will find in this chart.
Leclerc, Christian Carroll and I explained in detail how an unexpected fall in the hash rate could signal a price crash, as happened in March 2020 and again in May 2021. , Was expected as soon as the rainy season ended in China.
Macro chart in deep dive
Deep dive from August Bitcoin Magazine, LeClair includes a large part of the macro setting, from a US perspective. And that’s where we started to disagree a little bit. It has charts for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), interest rates on Treasury bonds, government deficits and much more. Audiences should know Carols and my views on inflation so far, but Leclair combines some interesting charts and arguments as to why the end of the US dollar system is near.
Leclair also made a fantastic comment while covering his section on the Trifin dilemma. Paraphrasing, he said, “The solution to Robert Triffin’s proposed problem was to adopt the Kenyan banker as the international reserve currency in the 1960s. Today, we have Bitcoin, which is suitable for that role. ”
It is interesting that Bitcoin is a gold standard and a perfect combination of currency like a banker.
We can’t cover everything from podcasts here, you must go and listen and watch on YouTube. We will regularly try to get Lecler back on the show to discuss his in-depth knowledge of the bitcoin industry.